Jacksonville St.

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	149.0
Current RPI:	149
Expected SOS:	239
Current SOS:	239
Current Record:	20-12
Expected Record:	20-12
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-3
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	200
Expected OOC SOS:	340

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-12	149.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Richmond (176.0)	A10	A	61-94	W	100%
11-15	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	A	81-76	L	0%
11-20	Savannah St. (197.0)	MEAC	N	71-86	W	100%
11-21	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	A	75-77	W	100%
11-26	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	A	59-56	L	0%
11-30	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	H	77-69	W	100%
12-3	Samford (296.0)	SC	H	89-58	W	100%
12-9	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	H	75-56	W	100%
12-12	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	70-69	L	0%
12-16	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	H	77-61	W	100%
12-18	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	H	62-60	W	100%
12-21	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	H	67-70	L	0%
12-28	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	76-58	W	100%
12-30	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	H	76-69	W	100%
1-4	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	A	67-60	L	0%
1-6	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	A	60-64	W	100%
1-11	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	H	76-71	W	100%
1-13	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	H	67-87	L	0%
1-18	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	A	57-58	W	100%
1-20	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	A	60-68	W	100%
1-25	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	H	63-67	L	0%
1-27	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	H	78-60	W	100%
2-1	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	A	56-75	W	100%
2-3	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	A	75-67	L	0%
2-8	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	H	82-65	W	100%
2-10	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	H	47-65	L	0%
2-15	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	A	68-60	L	0%
2-17	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	A	60-57	L	0%
2-22	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	78-67	W	100%
2-24	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	A	57-66	W	100%
3-1	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	N	73-70	W	100%
3-2	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	N	70-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Jacksonville St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Jacksonville St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Jacksonville St.	OVC	26.47	26.47	63.01	63.01	6.89	6.89
Tennessee Tech	OVC	5.57	5.57	60.71	60.71	1.19	1.19
Murray St.	OVC	5.42	5.42	84.62	84.62	3.75	3.75
Belmont	OVC	4.04	4.04	77.42	77.42	2.21	2.21
Austin Peay	OVC	3.94	3.94	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	3.94	3.94	42.31	42.31	-0.61	-0.61
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	3.92	3.92	33.33	33.33	-1.31	-1.31
Morehead St.	OVC	3.88	3.88	24.00	24.00	-2.02	-2.02
Chattanooga	SC	3.33	3.33	24.14	24.14	-1.72	-1.72
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.49	2.49	35.71	35.71	-0.71	-0.71
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.47	2.47	25.00	25.00	-1.23	-1.23
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.46	2.46	27.59	27.59	-1.10	-1.10
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.39	2.39	42.86	42.86	-0.34	-0.34
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.72	1.72	26.67	26.67	-0.80	-0.80
Samford	SC	1.71	1.71	27.59	27.59	-0.77	-0.77
Oregon St.	P12	1.62	1.62	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.61	1.61	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.61	1.61	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Howard	MEAC	1.59	1.59	26.67	26.67	-0.74	-0.74
Buffalo	MAC	1.56	1.56	75.00	75.00	0.78	0.78
Louisiana Monroe	SB	1.56	1.56	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
Richmond	A10	1.56	1.56	38.71	38.71	-0.35	-0.35
USC Upstate	ASun	1.56	1.56	11.11	11.11	-1.22	-1.22
Lipscomb	ASun	0.34	0.34	68.97	68.97	0.13	0.13
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.23	0.23	71.88	71.88	0.10	0.10
Furman	SC	0.23	0.23	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.21	0.21	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.21	0.21	24.24	24.24	-0.11	-0.11
Marshall	CUSA	0.19	0.19	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.18	0.18	76.67	76.67	0.10	0.10
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Mercer	SC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
VMI	SC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Western Carolina	SC	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Wofford	SC	0.15	0.15	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.15	0.15	16.67	16.67	-0.10	-0.10
TCU	B12	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Washington	P12	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
IUPUI	Horz	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Marist	MAAC	0.11	0.11	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
LSU	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01